PAPER · FADE
Realized−$337
Settled4/13 won
Equity$9,663
Cash$9,561
Deployed$101
Bankroll$10,000
OPEN (1)
Will James Talarico be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Sep 25 at 10:00 AM ET? — KXACTBLUETOP-26SEP25
YES @ 80¢ × 125 = $100 · anchor 80¢
win +$24 · now $-88 · closes +35h
SETTLED (LAST 20)
Will James Talarico be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Sep 11 at 10:00 AM ET? — KXACTBLUETOP-26SEP11
YES @ 78¢ × 12 · anchor 65¢
WON +$2
Will James Talarico be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Sep 4 at 10:00 AM ET? — KXACTBLUETOP-26SEP04
YES @ 70¢ × 100 · anchor 66¢
WON +$29
Will legislation that, upon becoming law, completes, extends, or restores appropriations coverage across all 12 regular appropriations acts, whether temporarily or for the full fiscal year become law before Sep 11, 2026? — KXGOVTFULLFUND-26AUG
YES @ 58¢ × 155 · anchor 54¢
WON +$62
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. drop out of the Alaska U.S. Senate race before Sep 1, 2026? — KXAKDROPOUTAUG-26
YES @ 42¢ × 239 · anchor 33¢
LOST −$104
Will Jon Ossoff be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Aug 28 at 10:00 AM ET? — KXACTBLUETOP-26AUG28
YES @ 54¢ × 100 · anchor 51¢
LOST −$56
Will James Talarico be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Aug 21 at 10:00 AM ET? — KXACTBLUETOP-26AUG21
YES @ 67¢ × 110 · anchor 65¢
LOST −$75
Will Abdul El-Sayed be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Aug 14 at 10:00 AM ET? — KXACTBLUETOP-26AUG14
YES @ 35¢ × 112 · anchor 36¢
LOST −$41
Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 before Aug 11, 2026? — KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26
YES @ 33¢ × 48 · anchor 33¢
LOST −$17
Will Max Miller drop out of the the OH-07 race before Aug 9, 2026? — KXMILLERDROPOUT-26
YES @ 43¢ × 150 · anchor 32¢
LOST −$67
Will James Talarico be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Aug 7 at 10:00 AM ET? — KXACTBLUETOP-26AUG07
YES @ 30¢ × 50 · anchor 32¢
LOST −$16
Will Jeanine Pirro announce their departure as United States Attorney for the District of Columbia before Aug 7, 2026? — KXPIRROOUT-26AUG
YES @ 33¢ × 73 · anchor 32¢
LOST −$25
Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 before Aug 5, 2026? — KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26
YES @ 35¢ × 150 · anchor 32¢
LOST −$54
Will Troy Jackson be the top ActBlue fundraiser on July 31 at 10:00 AM ET? — KXACTBLUETOP-26JUL31
YES @ 80¢ × 125 · anchor 79¢
WON +$24
Bellwether Smoke · buys the drama the crowd disbelieves · YES at 30–80¢ on institutional-drama binaries (cabinet out / shutdown / funding / resignations) · verified: train +11–28% every horizon, OOS 2026 +38–55% (one strike per event; NO-side control −40%) · the fleet's FIRST yes-side book · $500/event · one entry per saga · low frequency by design — where there is institutional smoke, it burns