PAPERJuly 25
Realized+$30
Settled10/20 won
Filled0
Flock9
Deployed$0
Cash$10,030
Bankroll$10,000
Realized−$924
Settled14/54 won
Filled0
Flock10
Deployed$0
Cash$9,076
Bankroll$10,000
toggle: same ledger, two universes — gated events dim when the gate is on
What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally…?
↗
Jul 24 7:00pm EDT +12h · settling·44 words ·verbosity 62% ·GATED ·1 FLOCK ·$-101
250
yes 100%no 0%
LOST −$15
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
yes 36%no 64%
passed — out of band (36%)
AI / Artificial Intelligence
yes 38%no 62%
passed — out of band (39%)
Alien
yes 53%no 47%
passed — out of band (53%)
Autopen
yes 0%no 100%
no fill · no
Ballroom
yes 76%no 24%
passed — out of band (77%)
Barack Hussein Obama
yes 50%no 50%
passed — out of band (50%)
Biden
yes 75%no 25%
passed — out of band (75%)
Butler
yes 19%no 81%
passed — out of band (19%)
Central Casting
yes 19%no 81%
passed — out of band (19%)
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
yes 50%no 50%
passed — out of band (51%)
China
yes 100%no 0%
LOST −$21
Clinton
yes 75%no 25%
passed — out of band (75%)
Comedy / Comedian
yes 48%no 52%
passed — out of band (48%)
Communist / Communism
yes 0%no 100%
no fill · no
Crypto / Bitcoin
yes 6%no 94%
passed — out of band (7%)
Democrat
yes 78%no 22%
passed — out of band (75%)
Dumbocrat / Dumacrat
yes 65%no 35%
passed — out of band (65%)
Epstein
yes 4%no 96%
passed — out of band (5%)
Fake News
yes 88%no 12%
passed — out of band (88%)
First Term
yes 0%no 100%
no fill · no
Hoax
yes 0%no 100%
no fill · no
Hormuz
yes 49%no 51%
passed — out of band (49%)
Hottest
yes 74%no 26%
passed — out of band (75%)
IQ / Genius
yes 32%no 68%
passed — out of band (33%)
Iran (3+ times)
yes 48%no 52%
passed — out of band (48%)
Israel / Israeli
yes 34%no 66%
passed — out of band (34%)
Kamala
yes 100%no 0%
LOST −$10
MAGA / Make America Great Again
yes 36%no 64%
passed — out of band (37%)
Movie Star
yes 0%no 100%
limit NO @ 51¢anchor 29% · fills ≥49%
Newsom / Newscum
yes 100%no 0%
LOST −$20
Oil
yes 100%no 0%
LOST −$35
Radical Left
yes 54%no 46%
passed — out of band (54%)
Russia
yes 57%no 43%
passed — out of band (57%)
Sleepy Joe
yes 54%no 46%
passed — out of band (54%)
Stock Market
yes 0%no 100%
no fill · no
Supreme Court
yes 16%no 84%
passed — out of band (17%)
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome
yes 32%no 68%
passed — out of band (33%)
Transgender
yes 0%no 100%
no fill · no
UFC
yes 75%no 25%
passed — out of band (75%)
Venezuela
yes 42%no 58%
passed — out of band (42%)
Weave / Weaved / Weaving
yes 14%no 86%
passed — out of band (18%)
World Cup
yes 52%no 48%
passed — out of band (53%)
Zohran / Mamdani
yes 50%no 50%
passed — out of band (50%)
What will Zohran Mamdani say during next NYC Mayor's Office announcement?
↗
Jul 25 · today·13 words ·verbosity 38% ·9 FLOCK
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
yes 50%no 50%
limit NO @ 34¢anchor 46% · fills ≥66%
AI / Artificial Intelligence
yes 63%no 37%
limit NO @ 17¢anchor 63% · fills ≥83%
Benjamin / Netanyahu
yes 83%no 17%
passed — out of band (83%)
Billionaire
yes 45%no 55%
limit NO @ 35¢anchor 45% · fills ≥65%
Budget / Deficit
yes 64%no 36%
limit NO @ 16¢anchor 64% · fills ≥84%
Childcare
yes 0%no 100%
watching
Economy / Economic
yes 74%no 26%
passed — out of band (74%)
Five Borough
yes 45%no 55%
limit NO @ 35¢anchor 45% · fills ≥65%
Iran / Iranian
yes 48%no 52%
limit NO @ 34¢anchor 46% · fills ≥66%
NYPD
yes 56%no 44%
limit NO @ 24¢anchor 56% · fills ≥76%
Socialism / Socialist
yes 56%no 44%
limit NO @ 24¢anchor 56% · fills ≥76%
Trump / President
yes 84%no 16%
passed — out of band (84%)
World Cup
yes 66%no 34%
limit NO @ 14¢anchor 66% · fills ≥86%
Verbosity = expected share of an event's listed words that get spoken, from each family's history, tightened by every live settle. Low (mint, ≤35%) = quiet format, strongest NO ground; red (≥50%) = word furnace — more speech, more YES.
Bellwether Shepherd · tends the maybe-flock: at T-24h the political market's verdict is formed but the 30-55% band stays overpriced on YES by 7-12 points · bottom-6 per event, NO limits 20¢ under the anchor · backtest +45% (2025) / +33% (2026)